Weekly Review for Week Ending August 9th
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What happened last week?!
The markets saw some dramatic swings last week, all kicked off by a weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday, which showed a softening labor market and a rise in unemployment. This news sent the markets tumbling, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the NASDAQ losing 3.43% on Monday (FactSet). Investors were clearly spooked, leading to further declines as the week began.
However, as the week progressed, the market seemed to waver, trying to decide if Monday’s sharp drop was an overreaction. On Thursday, we saw a significant reversal when weekly jobless claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000—the largest drop in some time. This unexpected improvement helped ease fears of an imminent recession, sparking a strong market rally. By the end of Thursday, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ had surged by 2.3% and 2.87%, respectively. The rally continued into Friday, with both indexes adding to their gains, effectively erasing the dramatic losses from earlier in the week (FactSet).
Despite the wild swings, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended the week essentially flat. It was a reminder that while the market can overreact in the short term, patience is often rewarded in the long term. For the month, though, we’re still down 3.23% and 4.85% on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but we remain up 12.04% and 11.55% for the year (FactSet).
Looking Ahead
You might hear some chatter that the Federal Reserve may have held interest rates too high for too long, with a few voices even calling for an intermeeting rate cut to prevent further economic weakening. However, it’s important to keep in mind that the Fed’s primary mandates are to ensure healthy price stability (inflation) and to maximize employment—not to react to fluctuations in the stock market1.
Inflation has been steadily declining, though not dramatically, which indicates that the Fed’s current approach is gradually working. Although the unemployment rate has ticked up, it remains low by historical standards. The Fed is carefully balancing its mandate to stabilize prices and maintain employment, even as some market participants express concerns about the economic momentum.
In my view, it’s important to take a breath. Over the next few weeks, more data will trickle in, giving us a clearer picture of whether last week’s market reaction was appropriate. Given the scale of the recent market responses, I expect that incoming data will continue to be met with strong reactions, for better or worse. Volatility seems likely to remain high.
What’s Coming Up?
This week, we’ll see the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for inflation on Wednesday, which will be closely watched. On Thursday, weekly unemployment claims will provide another read on the state of the job market, and Friday brings a handful of housing data. We’ll also get earnings reports from Home Depot and Walmart, along with U.S. Retail Sales on Thursday, which will give us some insight into consumer spending habits.
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Have a great week,
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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