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Weekly Review for week ending 8/16/24

I’d said that after the previous week’s jitters about the strength of the consumer and economy, that the Retail sales report would be closely watched.  Well, retail and food services sales came in stronger than expected, signaling a solid start for the U.S. economy for the 3rd quarter. These numbers should communicate that the U.S. consumer is still going strong, despite recent market concerns. This data also suggests that the market's overreaction a few weeks ago were likely premature.

In response to this positive data, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted very healthy gains of 3.93% and 5.29%, respectively, marking the strongest weekly gains of the year. These gains follow shortly after the weakest week of the year, coincidence...I think not. We are now less than 2% from the markets all time highs in mid July(FactSet).

Fresh inflation data likely contributed to the rally with July’s CPI coming in at 2.9% marking the lowest read since the Fed began its inflation battle.  The conversation now will likely be not whether they cut rates in September, but whether they do a .25% or .50% cut and whether we get an additional reduction in November and/or December. It seems likely to me that we will get 2 cuts this year and if the feds recent candor is to be respected, it they will both be .25%.

Weekly jobless claims, released last Thursday, further bolstered confidence, showing a healthy labor market. This likely relaxed fears that the economy was heading into a downturn, as the data indicates continued strength in employment.

Looking Ahead

This week, we'll be paying close attention to Thursday's existing home sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors, as well as the weekly unemployment claims from the U.S. Department of Labor. On Friday, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he speaks at the Federal Reserve's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Additionally, we’ll get new home sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which will provide further insights into the housing market.

If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates that I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.

Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author “Financial Planning for Widows”

m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. jeremy.raffer@stewardpartners.com

Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652.

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