Weekend Read - The Clock is Ticking on Trump’s Tariff Pauses
07/01/2025As I write this, markets are back at all-time highs. We’ve erased all the losses we saw earlier this year when tariff turmoil first hit the headlines and are within sneezing distance of our February highs (FactSet). This rebound seems mostly driven by optimism that the temporary tariff pauses Trump enacted with China, the European Union, and others will soon become permanent trade deals.
As we approach the first of these deadlines in just days, I can’t help but wonder whether current levels are justified, and what will happen if deals are signed, or are not…
Key Dates: When the 90-Day Tariff Pauses Expire
Global Reciprocal Tariffs
Expiration: July 8, 2025
What It Means: This pause covered dozens of countries, postponing the major reciprocal tariff increases that initially rattled markets.
China
Expiration: August 12, 2025
What It Means: Tariffs between the U.S. and China were cut significantly back in May after significant escalation.
European Union
Expiration: July 9, 2025
What It Means: The U.S. delayed implementing tariffs on European goods to give both sides more time at the negotiating table.
Current Status of Negotiations
China: A Deal… Sort of
On Thursday, June 26, Trump announced a signed trade framework agreement between the U.S. and China From what I’ve been able to find, the deal locks in the reduced tariffs for both sides and includes China’s commitment to export rare earths to the US. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to lift certain unspecified trade restrictions1.
Both sides are saying the right things, but details remain very unclear, and there's no official written text available. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has mentioned Labor Day as the goal for completing formal deals with 18 key trade partners, including China. That comment suggests some flexibility might still exist around the August deadline1.
Markets seem to view this as a positive development, but until more clarity emerges, a degree of caution is warranted.
European Union: The Clock is Running Out
Negotiations with the European Union continue, but nothing concrete has emerged yet. Reports indicate the EU might lower tariffs on certain American products and buy more U.S. goods to smooth out a deal, but the July 9 deadline is looming2. Without a deal, tariffs could quickly ramp up again, adding uncertainty back into markets.
Market Impact
Investors have clearly bet on optimism, counting on these pauses turning into firm trade agreements. If deals get signed, markets could rally. However, if talks stall or fall apart, we could see renewed market turbulence.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
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Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652
1https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-says-us-china-framework-signed-as-bessent-targets-labor-day-for-key-deals-200619915.html
2https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/eu-considers-lowering-tariffs-on-u-s-imports-in-bid-to-woo-trump-fe070042
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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As we approach the first of these deadlines in just days, I can’t help but wonder whether current levels are justified, and what will happen if deals are signed, or are not…
Key Dates: When the 90-Day Tariff Pauses Expire
Global Reciprocal Tariffs
Expiration: July 8, 2025
What It Means: This pause covered dozens of countries, postponing the major reciprocal tariff increases that initially rattled markets.
China
Expiration: August 12, 2025
What It Means: Tariffs between the U.S. and China were cut significantly back in May after significant escalation.
European Union
Expiration: July 9, 2025
What It Means: The U.S. delayed implementing tariffs on European goods to give both sides more time at the negotiating table.
Current Status of Negotiations
China: A Deal… Sort of
On Thursday, June 26, Trump announced a signed trade framework agreement between the U.S. and China From what I’ve been able to find, the deal locks in the reduced tariffs for both sides and includes China’s commitment to export rare earths to the US. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to lift certain unspecified trade restrictions1.
Both sides are saying the right things, but details remain very unclear, and there's no official written text available. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has mentioned Labor Day as the goal for completing formal deals with 18 key trade partners, including China. That comment suggests some flexibility might still exist around the August deadline1.
Markets seem to view this as a positive development, but until more clarity emerges, a degree of caution is warranted.
European Union: The Clock is Running Out
Negotiations with the European Union continue, but nothing concrete has emerged yet. Reports indicate the EU might lower tariffs on certain American products and buy more U.S. goods to smooth out a deal, but the July 9 deadline is looming2. Without a deal, tariffs could quickly ramp up again, adding uncertainty back into markets.
Market Impact
Investors have clearly bet on optimism, counting on these pauses turning into firm trade agreements. If deals get signed, markets could rally. However, if talks stall or fall apart, we could see renewed market turbulence.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
Want to receive these weekly? Subscribe here
Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652
1https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-says-us-china-framework-signed-as-bessent-targets-labor-day-for-key-deals-200619915.html
2https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/eu-considers-lowering-tariffs-on-u-s-imports-in-bid-to-woo-trump-fe070042
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
AdTrax 8116948.1 Exp 6/26