Weekend Read – Recession Fears, Separating Hype from Reality
03/18/2025I take pride in personally crafting each of these emails. Unlike many others in the industry who rely on prewritten content, I write these myself from scratch. My goal is to boil down complex concepts and share relevant news in an easy-to-understand format. I hope you find them both informative and enjoyable.
Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about whether the U.S. economy is heading for a recession. The media loves to sound the alarm anytime there’s market turbulence and even the president has chimed in, but when you look at the actual data, the picture isn’t nearly as dire. While we may experience some economic slowing, the case for an outright recession seems overblown.
What Exactly Is a Recession?
A recession varies by definition depending on who you ask.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
The Numbers
Despite all the recession talk, key economic indicators are still showing strength:
Is There Any Real Evidence of a Recession?
Despite all the media hype, there is no single metric that clearly points to a recession right now.
The only potential warning signs come from investor sentiment and policy risks:
What should you do?
Right now, I see no evidence that a recession is coming. If consumers continue cutting back, businesses slow their investments, inflation ticks back up, and tariffs increase and remain for the long run, then the case for a recession will strengthen. However, at this point in time, I don’t see any signs of any of that happening.
This isn’t the time for panic, but it is a good time to:
If you have questions or want to discuss your portfolio in light of these developments, let’s talk.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates that I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author - “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652
1https://fortune.com/2025/03/11/goldman-sachs-chief-economist-downgrades-entire-us-economy-trump-tariffs-markets/
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about whether the U.S. economy is heading for a recession. The media loves to sound the alarm anytime there’s market turbulence and even the president has chimed in, but when you look at the actual data, the picture isn’t nearly as dire. While we may experience some economic slowing, the case for an outright recession seems overblown.
What Exactly Is a Recession?
A recession varies by definition depending on who you ask.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
The Numbers
Despite all the recession talk, key economic indicators are still showing strength:
- GDP Growth: The U.S. economy grew 2.8% in 2024, and Q1 GDP was 2.3% (bea.gov).
- Unemployment: The job market remains strong, with an unemployment rate of just 4.0% as of January 2025. While this is slightly higher than last year, it’s still historically low (bls.gov).
- Consumer Spending: After a strong holiday season in December, January 2025 saw a slight decline of 0.2%. While this raised some concerns, a single month of lower spending is not enough to suggest a trend. February’s consumer spending report, due March 28, will give us more clarity (bea.gov).
Is There Any Real Evidence of a Recession?
Despite all the media hype, there is no single metric that clearly points to a recession right now.
- GDP is still growing, not shrinking.
- Unemployment remains historically low.
- Consumer spending has softened slightly, but not significantly.
The only potential warning signs come from investor sentiment and policy risks:
- Stock Market Volatility – Markets reacted negatively to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, but short-term swings don’t necessarily mean a recession is coming.
- Revised Growth Forecasts – Some economists (e.g., Goldman Sachs) lowered their Q4 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7%, but that’s still positive growth, not contraction1.
- Trade Policy Uncertainty – The new tariffs could lead to higher costs for businesses and consumers, but it’s too early to tell if they will have a significant economic impact.
What should you do?
Right now, I see no evidence that a recession is coming. If consumers continue cutting back, businesses slow their investments, inflation ticks back up, and tariffs increase and remain for the long run, then the case for a recession will strengthen. However, at this point in time, I don’t see any signs of any of that happening.
This isn’t the time for panic, but it is a good time to:
- Review your investment strategy to ensure it’s aligned with your long-term goals.
- Avoid knee-jerk reactions to market fluctuations. Volatility doesn’t necessarily mean disaster.
- Keep an eye on key trends, but don’t let headlines drive your decisions.
If you have questions or want to discuss your portfolio in light of these developments, let’s talk.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates that I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author - “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652
1https://fortune.com/2025/03/11/goldman-sachs-chief-economist-downgrades-entire-us-economy-trump-tariffs-markets/
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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