Weekend Read - Tariff Timeline and Market Reaction Recap
05/16/2025After several months of turmoil, conversations about recession, and apocalyptic predictions, we sit here with the markets ahead of where they started the year and a few percent within their all-time highs. What felt like a freefall has turned into a remarkable rebound. That volatility was largely driven by tariffs. Let's zoom out and revisit how these tariffs unfolded and where we stand today:
Looking Ahead
While this recent rally has been enthusiastic and welcomewe’re not out of the woods yet. The current tariff agreements remain temporary, with the potential for negotiations to revert or stall, reintroducing volatility. It’s also possible that inflationary pressures could still emerge in future reports as companies work their way through existing inventories. Caution is prudent. As always, maintaining a diversified portfolio and rebalancing appropriately has helped me to manage risk and remains crucial.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates that I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
Should you have any questions or concerns about how these global developments might affect your portfolio, I’m always available to talk.
Enjoy your weekend,
Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652.
1 https://thevisioncouncil.org/members/2025-tariff-developments
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For index definitions, click here
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- February-March: Initially, the Trump administration announced broad tariffs, targeting several key trading partners including China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. Markets reacted negatively, beginning a downward trend that intensified as uncertainty grew.
- April: Tariff tensions reached a peak. The U.S. implemented tariffs as high as 145% on selected Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory tariffs from China reaching 125%. Simultaneously, significant tariffs were applied to steel and aluminum imports from Europe, Canada, and Mexico. Investor anxiety pushed markets sharply downward1.
- Market Bottom (April 8, 2025): By early April, markets had retreated significantly. The S&P 500 had dropped roughly 15% from the beginning of the year and nearly 19% from its February high, officially entering correction territory (FactSet).
- April 9, 2025: President Trump announced a 90-day reciprocal pause on the majority of recently imposed global tariffs, temporarily alleviating trade tensions and setting the stage for a sharp market rally1. Investor sentiment shifted almost immediately, and the S&P 500 posted its largest single-day gain of the year, jumping 9.5% (FactSet), kicking off a steady climb that would continue in the weeks that followed.
- May 12, 2025: The U.S. and China announced a formal 90-day tariff truce, lowering U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China's tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%1. This move signaled a turning point in trade relations and sparked a surge in investor optimism. Markets surged in the days that followed, and by mid-May had nearly erased all their tariff-related losses and turned positive on the year (FactSet).
- Recent Economic Data: CPI Inflation data for April has continued to show improvement, with inflation cooling even as tariffs ramped up, a surprising development. Meanwhile, first quarter GDP growth was stronger than it appeared at first glance. A surge in imports, largely driven by companies trying to get ahead of potential tariff increases, temporarily dragged down net exports, but domestic demand remained solid (bea.gov).
Looking Ahead
While this recent rally has been enthusiastic and welcomewe’re not out of the woods yet. The current tariff agreements remain temporary, with the potential for negotiations to revert or stall, reintroducing volatility. It’s also possible that inflationary pressures could still emerge in future reports as companies work their way through existing inventories. Caution is prudent. As always, maintaining a diversified portfolio and rebalancing appropriately has helped me to manage risk and remains crucial.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates that I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
Should you have any questions or concerns about how these global developments might affect your portfolio, I’m always available to talk.
Enjoy your weekend,
Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652.
1 https://thevisioncouncil.org/members/2025-tariff-developments
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For index definitions, click here
AdTrax 7968487.1 Exp 5/26