Weekly Review 12-6-24
12/06/2024Weekly Review for week ending 12-6-24
The markets delivered a strong performance last week. The NASDAQ rose 2.71%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.18%, with the NASDAQ hitting and the S&P500 extending record levels (FactSet). As we approach the year-end, I’ll focus is on whether these gains can hold steady. It seems that investors remain optimistic, buoyed by lower interest rate expectations, a resilient economy, and a perceived favorable political landscape.
On the economic front, the November jobs report provided a mixed bag of data. The U.S. added 227,000 jobs, well above October’s meager gain of 36,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, reflecting a conflicting view of the labor market (bls.gov). To me, it appears that this divergence between job creation and rising unemployment suggests that while hiring is occurring, more people are also facing challenges in securing employment.
In my view, this labor market dynamic is exactly what the Federal Reserve is hoping for as it lowers rates. A cooling labor market, without a complete collapse. Hopefully this is a sign that inflationary pressures may continue easing in the months ahead.
Looking Ahead
A Consumer Price Index Inflation report that’s scheduled for release on Wednesday will give the U.S. Federal Reserve another key data point ahead of its December 17–18 meeting. The most recent CPI report covering October showed an annual rate of 2.6%, up from September’s 2.4% figure, further datapoint of recently uneven progress in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s 2.0% long-term target.
The Fed’s December 17–18 meeting will likely hinge on this latest inflation data. If CPI shows continued improvement, it could bolster the case for further rate reductions in 2024. However, uneven progress could prompt a more cautious approach in light of recent increases in the unemployment rate. The dynamic between inflation and employment is a balancing act for the fed. Looking at the CME Fed Watch tool, it appears that theirs a 90% chance the fed will reduce rates by another .25% this month and I’d agree with that likelihood.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates that I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For index definitions click here
Please note that the URL(s) or hyperlink(s) in this material is not to a Steward Partners Investment Solutions, LLC website. It was created, operated and maintained by a different entity. Steward Partners Investment Solutions, LLC is not implying an affiliation, sponsorship, endorsement with/of the third party or that any monitoring is being done by Steward Partners of any information contained within the linked site; nor do we guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Steward Partners is not responsible for the information contained on the third party web site or the use of or inability to use such site.
AdTax 7422066.1 Exp 12/25
The markets delivered a strong performance last week. The NASDAQ rose 2.71%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.18%, with the NASDAQ hitting and the S&P500 extending record levels (FactSet). As we approach the year-end, I’ll focus is on whether these gains can hold steady. It seems that investors remain optimistic, buoyed by lower interest rate expectations, a resilient economy, and a perceived favorable political landscape.
On the economic front, the November jobs report provided a mixed bag of data. The U.S. added 227,000 jobs, well above October’s meager gain of 36,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, reflecting a conflicting view of the labor market (bls.gov). To me, it appears that this divergence between job creation and rising unemployment suggests that while hiring is occurring, more people are also facing challenges in securing employment.
In my view, this labor market dynamic is exactly what the Federal Reserve is hoping for as it lowers rates. A cooling labor market, without a complete collapse. Hopefully this is a sign that inflationary pressures may continue easing in the months ahead.
Looking Ahead
A Consumer Price Index Inflation report that’s scheduled for release on Wednesday will give the U.S. Federal Reserve another key data point ahead of its December 17–18 meeting. The most recent CPI report covering October showed an annual rate of 2.6%, up from September’s 2.4% figure, further datapoint of recently uneven progress in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s 2.0% long-term target.
The Fed’s December 17–18 meeting will likely hinge on this latest inflation data. If CPI shows continued improvement, it could bolster the case for further rate reductions in 2024. However, uneven progress could prompt a more cautious approach in light of recent increases in the unemployment rate. The dynamic between inflation and employment is a balancing act for the fed. Looking at the CME Fed Watch tool, it appears that theirs a 90% chance the fed will reduce rates by another .25% this month and I’d agree with that likelihood.
If you’ve only recently joined my email list, you’ve missed out on many insights and updates that I've been sharing each week. Be sure to visit my blog to explore past content that you might find valuable.
Jeremy Raffer, MBA
Director & Wealth Manager
Author “Financial Planning for Widows”
m. 201-747-2705
w. rafferwealthmanagement.com
e. [email protected]
Steward Partners
115 W. Century Rd, Suite 145
Paramus, NJ 07652.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For index definitions click here
Please note that the URL(s) or hyperlink(s) in this material is not to a Steward Partners Investment Solutions, LLC website. It was created, operated and maintained by a different entity. Steward Partners Investment Solutions, LLC is not implying an affiliation, sponsorship, endorsement with/of the third party or that any monitoring is being done by Steward Partners of any information contained within the linked site; nor do we guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Steward Partners is not responsible for the information contained on the third party web site or the use of or inability to use such site.
AdTax 7422066.1 Exp 12/25